Gateway, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

584
FXAK68 PAFC 160059
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 PM AKDT Fri May 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Monday afternoon)...

We get one more nice-ish day of spring today, then an unseasonably
strong storm moves into Southcentral beginning late tonight and
continuing through Monday. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the
Anchorage and Eagle River Hillsides, as gusts of up to 50 to 65
mph are expected (and isolated gusts of up to 75 mph are
possible). Most of Southcentral will see decently strong winds
from this storm, so be sure to factor winds into your weekend
plans, especially if you`ll be outdoors or traveling with higher
profile vehicles like RVs. As winds will be quite strong, also
refer to local authorities regarding fire safety and whether it`s
safe to burn. Mariners should also take heed of the forecast;
widespread gales are expected, with the potential for a storm-
force barrier jet near Cordova.

Diving into the details... overall, the forecast has trended
towards much stronger winds as the puzzle pieces click into place.
The feature of interest has been an upper trough and its
associated surface low barreling in from the North Pacific and
merging with the front from a Bering Sea low. This surface low
looks much more well-defined now than it did in previous model
runs and will be strengthening as it approaches Kodiak Island; as
such, it has been the impetus for increased forecast wind speeds.
With the vertical temperature profile looking fairly unstable,
we`re watching the potential for stronger winds to mix down,
especially in the Anchorage area. Current thinking is that while
we`ll see some stronger gusts mix down from aloft, there won`t be
a strong inversion to trap the strongest winds and reflect them
down to the surface. Still, models are hinting at the potential
for gusts of 75 mph or greater for the Anchorage and Eagle River
Hillsides, which will be worth watching.

Looking ahead: conditions improve from late Sunday into Monday,
as the North Pacific low is absorbed into the much larger and
weakening Bering Sea low. While Kodiak Island, Eastern KPen, and
Prince William Sound will see the bulk of their precipitation with
the front earlier in the weekend, more sheltered/interior
locations like Western KPen, Anchorage, and Mat-Su will see their
greatest precipitation chances as the showers move up-Inlet in
southwesterly flow.

-KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA , THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

Currently, the patterns over Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea
are fairly different, with a large low pressure system over the
Northern Pacific crossing the Aleutian Chain, and a clear
convective pattern over interior Southwest Alaska allowing for fog
development earlier this morning into afternoon cumulus. A Flood
Warning along the Kuskokwim River near Bethel for ice jam, remains
in effect through 9PM tonight, though water levels have crested
in Bethel and have been decreasing this afternoon. The low in the
Bering will shift eastward, dominating the pattern across
Southwestern Alaska and the Bering Sea by Saturday. The northern
side of the low has moved over the Pribilof islands, promoting
light snowfall with temperatures just above freezing. Elsewhere,
this low pressure system is spreading rainfall across the region,
and is very well saturated so rainfall rates are moderate-to-heavy
along the Alaska Peninsula, lighter further inland. Wind speeds
associated with this low, and its attached front, have over-
performed along the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon, pushing wind
speeds near 80 mph in Cold Bay earlier this afternoon. Wind speeds
will not be as strong as the front moves over the Southwest
coastline, but may still reach 60 to 70 mph along the Western
Capes of Southwest. Winds further inland, near Bethel and
Dillingham, will similarly not be as strong.

Influence from this strong low pressure system will likely persist
through the weekend into early next week, promoting light
rainshowers across Southwest Alaska, the Pribilofs, Alaska
Peninsula, and the majority of the Aleutian Chain. By Monday
afternoon, a new low pressure system looks to approach the Alaska
Peninsula/Eastern Aleutians, bringing another round of gusty
southeasterly winds and rainfall.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

A broad upper-level trough over the Bering Sea extending into the
Gulf looks to remain in place through at least early to mid next
week. This will support continued unsettled conditions across much
of southern Alaska.

Within the larger-scale cyclonic flow, a series of shortwaves
will continue to rotate northward into southern Alaska through
early next week. Winds are expected to increase again across the
western and northern Gulf. The eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince
William Sound look to see another round of heavier precipitation
on Tuesday, while lighter but more widespread precipitation
spreads across the remainder of the northern Gulf coast and into
Southwest Alaska.

By midweek, focus shifts farther west as the active Bering Sea
pattern continues. Another low is expected to move off Kamchatka,
though model guidance remains split on its track. The
European/Canadian models keep the low a bit farther north of the
Aleutians, while the GFS favors the low just to the south of the
Aleutian Chain. Regardless of the exact track, unsettled
conditions are expected to persist across the Aleutian Chain as
this system and its associated front progress eastward through
Friday.

LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF package.
Expect light westerly to southerly winds this afternoon with an
occasional gusts around 15 mph. Southerly winds will increase for
a time tonight, with gusts approaching 20 to 25 mph, before
briefly diminishing during the overnight and early Saturday
morning. Strong southeasterly winds will then redevelop by late
Saturday morning as a frontal system approached from the west.
Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 45 mph are
possible from around 10 AM through around 10 PM Saturday. Winds
are then expected to quickly turn northerly and diminish as the
southeasterly winds coming out of Turnagain Arm are pulled down
Cook Inlet. This expected wind shift Saturday night will likely
coincide with a period of continued gusty southeasterly winds
aloft over the Anchorage Hillside, resulting in the potential for
LLWS late Saturday night into early Sunday morning before the
winds aloft weaken and become more northeasterly.

-TM

&&


$$