Gateway, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

757
FXAK68 PAFC 140024
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
424 PM AKDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday afternoon)...

Another warm and sunny day is on deck for Southcentral Alaska as
a ridge of high pressure amplifies across the region. Today will
likely be the warmest of the forecast period, but high
temperatures will remain in the 60`s and 70`s through the
beginning of next week. Expect afternoon sea breezes for coastal
locations and an elevated Turnagain Arm wind by this evening as a
coastal ridge builds in.

Afternoon convection along elevated terrain will allow for
cumulus development this evening and tomorrow afternoon. The
Talkeetna Mountains and the Copper River Basin remain most
favorable for isolated showers during the evening hours, but
coverage should remain minimal. By Sunday, a slight shift north in
high pressure will allow for easterly troughs to rotate into the
area beneath the ridge. Moisture and instability will increase the
chances for evening showers and thunderstorms in the Copper River
Basin and Talkeetna Mountains through Monday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: This afternoon through Monday afternoon)...

Active weather continues for Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea, and
Aleutian Islands. Special Weather Statements remain in effect for
the Southern Alaska Peninsula through tonight for strong winds,
and for the Kuskokwim Delta coast through Saturday for potential
coastal flooding and erosion. Please view those products for more
information.

The weather will gradually settle down through tomorrow as the
strong low currently near the Pribilof Islands weakens and exits
northwards. Weaker storms do move along the Aleutian Islands and
Alaska Peninsula through Monday afternoon, bringing winds to about
25 to 30 kt over marine areas, as well as light rain and rain
showers. However, the bigger story will likely be over interior
Southwest Alaska, where temperatures could climb into the mid to
high 70s as we head into early next week. Abundant sunshine could
also lead to the potential for thunderstorms to develop in the
interior, so stay tuned as we continue to refine the forecast.

-KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Models are in fairly good agreement with the synoptic setup
through midweek next week with the lowest confidence being toward
the low center over the Bering Sea. High pressure will generally
remain across the mainland of the state. Meanwhile, a closed low
will linger over the Bering Sea and another in the Gulf of Alaska.
Active weather will be mostly confined over the West with a
strong North Pacific low and front moving over the Central
Aleutians Thursday into Friday. A North Pacific low drifting east
along the Aleutians towards the Gulf will merge with the main
Gulf low by late Monday. The two main upper lows over the Alaska
waters may phase, keeping unsettled weather across much of the
Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea, Aleutians, and the Alaska Peninsula.
Strong high pressure will block any significant movement in the
weather pattern for most of the next week, but embedded shortwave
troughs may allow for smaller, meandering features to resolve with
rainfall and breeziness. Over the mainland, easterly waves
emanating from the Gulf low could mean afternoon showers or
thunderstorm development. Toward midweek, the ridge appears to
build further, suppressing both lows, and leaving warmer and drier
conditions more likely for most of Alaska. While confidence is
high with the overall pattern, confidence is low for the weather
associated with finer features near coastal communities due to
slight variations in low centers.

-VR/AM


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail. A southerly wind from
Turnagain Arm is expected to develop later this afternoon. Gusts
are expected to be around 20 knots or less.

&&


$$